Professor Paul Blackwell

School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences

Professor

p.blackwell@sheffield.ac.uk
+44 114 222 3719
I7, Hicks Building

Full contact details

Professor Paul Blackwell
School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences
I7
Hicks Building
Hounsfield Road
Sheffield
S3 7RH
Profile

Prof Blackwell graduated with a BSc in Mathematics from Warwick University (1984). He has worked on forest growth models in the Statistics and Computing Department of the Forestry Commission Research Branch, and he obtained a PhD (1990) from Nottingham University. His main research interests are in Bayesian statistics, inference for stochastic processes, statistical ecology, and other applications including environmental statistics.

Research interests

I mainly work in Bayesian statistics; I am interested in the development of new models and methodology, particularly inference for random processes, driven by real applications which are primarily in ecology but also in environmental science, archaeology and other areas. I am also interested in stochastic modelling, statistics and simulation more generally, again often with ecological and environmental applications.

Publications

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All publications

Journal articles

  • Blackwell PG (2025) . Bulletin of the Australian Mathematical Society, 1-7.
  • Gomez S, English HM, Bejarano Alegre V, Blackwell PG, Bracken AM, Bray E, Evans LC, Gan JL, Grecian WJ, Gutmann Roberts C , Harju SM et al (2025) . Journal of Animal Ecology, 94(6), 1146-1164.
  • Blackwell P & Matthiopoulos J (2024) . Ecology, 105(12).
  • Rautiainen H, Alam M, Blackwell PG & Skarin A (2022) . Movement Ecology, 10(1).
  • Niu M, Frost F, Milner JE, Skarin A & Blackwell PG (2022) . Biometrics, 78(1), 286-299.
  • Bannister HJ, Blackwell PG, Hyder K & Webb TJ (2021) . Scientific Reports, 11.
  • Tishkovskaya SV & Blackwell P (2021) . Environmetrics, 32(6).
  • Spence MA, Thorpe RB, Blackwell PG, Scott F, Southwell R & Blanchard JL (2021) . Fish and Fisheries, 22(4), 667-681.
  • Pope CA, Gosling JP, Barber S, Johnson JS, Yamaguchi T, Feingold G & Blackwell PG (2021) . Technometrics, 63(1), 53-63.
  • Milner JE, Blackwell PG & Niu M (2021) . Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 12(1), 54-69.
  • Reimer PJ, Austin WEN, Bard E, Bayliss A, Blackwell PG, Ramsey CB, Butzin M, Cheng H, Edwards RL, Friedrich M , Grootes PM et al (2020) . Radiocarbon, 62(4), 725-757.
  • Hogg AG, Heaton TJ, Hua Q, Palmer JG, Turney CSM, Southon J, Bayliss A, Blackwell PG, Boswijk G, Bronk Ramsey C , Pearson C et al (2020) . Radiocarbon, 62(4), 759-778.
  • Heaton TJ, Blaauw M, Blackwell PG, Bronk Ramsey C, Reimer PJ & Scott EM (2020) . Radiocarbon, 62(4), 821-863.
  • Michelot T, Blackwell PG, Chamaillé‐Jammes S & Matthiopoulos J (2020) . Biometrics, 76(2), 438-447.
  • Bronk Ramsey C, Heaton T, Blaauw M, Blackwell P, Reimer P & Scott M (2020) .
  • Bronk Ramsey C, Heaton T, Blaauw M, Blackwell P, Reimer P, Reimer R & Scott M (2020) .
  • Michelot T, Gloaguen P, Blackwell PG & Étienne M (2019) . Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 10(11), 1894-1907.
  • Wang Y, Blackwell PG, Merkle JA & Potts JR (2019) . Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 10(10), 1664-1678.
  • Adam T, Griffiths CA, Leos-Barajas V, Meese EN, Lowe CG, Blackwell PG, Righton D & Langrock R (2019) . Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 10(9), 1536-1550.
  • Michelot T & Blackwell PG (2019) . Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 10(5), 637-649.
  • Michelot T, Blackwell PG & Matthiopoulos J (2019) . Ecology, 100(1).
  • Mumby PJ, Hock K, Condie SA, Ortiz JC, Wolff NH, Anthony KRN & Blackwell PG (2018) . PLoS Biology, 16(8).
  • Spence MA, Blanchard JL, Rossberg AG, Heath MR, Heymans JJ, Mackinson S, Serpetti N, Speirs DC, Thorpe RB & Blackwell PG (2018) . Fish and Fisheries, 19(6), 1031-1042.
  • Griffiths CA, Patterson TA, Blanchard J, Righton DA, Wright SR, Pitchford JW & Blackwell PG (2018) . Ecology and Evolution, 8(14), 7031-7043.
  • Hock K, Wolff NH, Ortiz JC, Condie SA, Anthony KRN, Blackwell PG & Mumby PJ (2017) . PLoS Biology, 15(11).
  • Parton A & Blackwell PG (2017) . Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics, 22(3), 373-392.
  • Patterson TA, Parton A, Langrock R, Blackwell PG, Thomas L & King R (2017) . AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, 101(4), 399-438.
  • (2017) . Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 8(7), 898-898.
  • Spence MA & Blackwell PG (2016) . Statistics and Computing, 26(6), 1137-1146.
  • Niu M, Blackwell PG & Skarin A (2016) . Biometrics, 72(2), 345-324.
  • Spence MA, Blackwell PG & Blanchard JL (2016) . Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 73(4), 589-597.
  • Blackwell PG, Niu M, Lambert MS & LaPoint SD (2016) . Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 7(2), 184-195.
  • Hyder K, Rossberg AG, Allen JI, Austen MC, Barciela RM, Bannister HJ, Blackwell PG, Blanchard JL, Burrows MT, Defriez E , Dorrington T et al (2015) . Marine Policy, 61, 291-302.
  • Jensen BJL, Pyne-O’Donnell S, Plunkett G, Froese DG, Hughes PDM, Sigl M, McConnell JR, Amesbury MJ, Blackwell PG, van den Bogaard C , Buck CE et al (2014) . Geology, 42(10), 875-878.
  • Wheatley JJ, Blackwell PG, Abram NJ & Wolff EW (2014) . Springer Proceedings in Mathematics and Statistics, 63, 121-125.
  • Langrock R, Hopcraft JGC, Blackwell PG, Goodall V, King R, Niu M, Patterson TA, Pedersen MW, Skarin A & Schick RS (2014) . Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 5(2), 190-199.
  • Reimer PJ, Bard E, Bayliss A, Beck JW, Blackwell PG, Ramsey CB, Brown DM, Buck CE, Edwards RL, Friedrich M , Grootes PM et al (2013) . RADIOCARBON, 55(4), 1923-1945.
  • Niu M, Heaton TJ, Blackwell PG & Buck CE (2013) . Radiocarbon, 55(4), 1905-1922.
  • Reimer PJ, Bard E, Bayliss A, Beck JW, Blackwell PG, Bronk Ramsey C, Buck CE, Cheng H, Edwards RL, Friedrich M , Grootes PM et al (2013) . Radiocarbon, 55(4), 1869-1887.
  • Hogg AG, Hua Q, Blackwell PG, Niu M, Buck CE, Guilderson TP, Heaton TJ, Palmer JG, Reimer PJ, Reimer RW , Turney CSM et al (2013) . Radiocarbon, 55(4), 1889-1903.
  • Harris KJ & Blackwell PG (2013) . Ecological Modelling, 255, 29-37.
  • Wheatley JJ, Blackwell PG, Abram NJ, McConnell JR, Thomas ER & Wolff EW (2012) . Climate of the Past, 8(6), 1869-1879.
  • Wheatley JJ, Blackwell PG, Abram NJ, McConnell JR, Thomas ER & Wolff EW (2012) .
  • Klauenberg K, Blackwell PG, Buck CE, Mulvaney R, Röthlisberger R & Wolff EW (2011) Bayesian Glaciological Modelling to quantify uncertainties in ice core chronologies. Quaternary Science Reviews.
  • Klauenberg K, Blackwell PG, Buck CE, Mulvaney R, Röthlisberger R & Wolff EW (2011) . Quaternary Science Reviews, 30(21-22), 2961-2975.
  • Heaton TJ, Blackwell PG & Buck CE (2009) A BAYESIAN APPROACH TO THE ESTIMATION OF RADIOCARBON CALIBRATION CURVES: THE INTCAL09 METHODOLOGY. RADIOCARBON, 51(4), 1151-1164.
  • Reimer PJ, Baillie MGL, Bard E, Bayliss A, Beck JW, Blackwell PG, Ramsey CB, Buck CE, Burr GS, Edwards RL , Friedrich M et al (2009) INTCAL09 AND MARINE09 RADIOCARBON AGE CALIBRATION CURVES, 0-50,000 YEARS CAL BP. RADIOCARBON, 51(4), 1111-1150.
  • Blackwell PG & Buck CE (2008) . BAYESIAN ANAL, 3(2), 225-248.
  • Blackwell PG & Buck CE (2008) . BAYESIAN ANAL, 3(2), 263-268.
  • Blackwell PG (2007) . ECOL MODEL, 207(2-4), 349-355.
  • Mumby PJ, Harborne AR, Williams J, Kappel CV, Brumbaugh DR, Micheli F, Holmes KE, Dahlgren CP, Paris CB & Blackwell PG (2007) . P NATL ACAD SCI USA, 104(20), 8362-8367.
  • Harborne AR, Mumby PJ, Zychaluk K, Hedley JD & Blackwell PG (2006) Modeling the beta diversity of coral reefs. ECOLOGY, 87(11), 2871-2881.
  • Mumby PJ, Hedley JD, Zychaluk K, Harborne AR & Blackwell PG (2006) . ECOL MODEL, 196(1-2), 131-148.
  • Reimer PJ, Baillie MGL, McCormac G, Reimer RW, Bard E, Beck JW, Blackwell PG, Buck CE, Burr GS, Edwards RL , Friedrich M et al (2006) . QUATERNARY SCI REV, 25(7-8), 855-862.
  • Blackwell PG, Buck CE & Reimer PJ (2006) . QUATERNARY SCI REV, 25(5-6), 408-413.
  • Kirkham J, Kaur R, Stillman EC, Blackwell PG, Elcock C & Brook AH (2005) . Arch Oral Biol, 50(2), 287-291.
  • van der Plicht J, Beck JW, Bard E, Baillie MGL, Blackwell PG, Buck CE, Friedrich M, Guilderson TP, Hughen KA, Kromer B , McCormac FG et al (2004) NotCal04 - Comparison/calibration C-14 records 26-50 cal kyr BP. RADIOCARBON, 46(3), 1225-1238.
  • Buck CE & Blackwell PG (2004) Formal statistical models for estimating radiocarbon calibration curves. RADIOCARBON, 46(3), 1093-1102.
  • Reimer PJ, Baillie MGL, Bard E, Bayliss A, Beck JW, Bertrand CJH, Blackwell PG, Buck CE, Burr GS, Cutler KB , Damon PE et al (2004) IntCal04 terrestrial radiocarbon age calibration, 0-26 cal kyr BP. RADIOCARBON, 46(3), 1029-1058.
  • Hughen KA, Baillie MGL, Bard E, Beck JW, Bertrand CJH, Blackwell PG, Buck CE, Burr GS, Cutler KB, Damon PE , Edwards RL et al (2004) Marine04 marine radiocarbon age calibration, 0-26 cal kyr BP. RADIOCARBON, 46(3), 1059-1086.
  • McCormac FG, Hogg AG, Blackwell PG, Buck CE, Higham TFG & Reimer PJ (2004) SHCal04 Southern Hemisphere calibration, 0-11.0 cal kyr BP. RADIOCARBON, 46(3), 1087-1092.
  • Mumby PJ, Edwards AJ, Arias-Gonzalez JE, Lindeman KC, Blackwell PG, Gall A, Gorczynska MI, Harborne AR, Pescod CL, Renken H , Wabnitz CCC et al (2004) . NATURE, 427(6974), 533-536.
  • Blackwell PG & Møller J (2003) . Advances in Applied Probability, 35(01), 4-26.
  • Blackwell PG & Moller J (2003) Bayesian analysis of deformed tessellation models. ADV APPL PROBAB, 35(1), 4-26.
  • Blackwell PG & Buck CE (2003) The Late Glacial human reoccupation of north-western Europe: new approaches to space-time modelling. ANTIQUITY, 77(296), 232-240.
  • Blackwell PG (2003) Bayesian inference for Markov processes with diffusion and discrete components. BIOMETRIKA, 90(3), 613-627.
  • Johnson D, Macdonald D, Kays R & Blackwell PG (2003) . TRENDS ECOL EVOL, 18(8), 381-382.
  • Johnson DDP, Kays R, Blackwell PG & Macdonald DW (2002) Does the resource dispersion hypothesis explain group living?. TRENDS ECOL EVOL, 17(12), 563-570.
  • Robinson DL, Blackwell PG, Stillman EC & Brook AH (2002) . Arch Oral Biol, 47(7), 545-554.
  • Campbell GS, Blackwell PG & Woodward FI (2002) Can landscape-scale characteristics be used to predict plant invasions along rivers?. J BIOGEOGR, 29(4), 535-543.
  • Walters K & Blackwell PG (2002) . J Theor Biol, 217(2), 149-157.
  • Blackwell PG (2001) . Biometrics, 57(2), 502-507.
  • Hatchwell BJ, Anderson C, Ross DJ, Fowlie MK & Blackwell PG (2001) Social organization of cooperatively breeding long-tailed tits: kinship and spatial dynamics. J ANIM ECOL, 70(5), 820-830.
  • Robinson DL, Blackwell PG, Stillman EC & Brook AH (2001) . Arch Oral Biol, 46(3), 191-199.
  • Blackwell PG & Macdonald DE (2000) Shapes and sizes of badger territories. OIKOS, 89(2), 392-398.
  • Robinson DL, Blackwell PG, Stillman EC & Brook AH (2000) Methods for describing and comparing variations in tooth shape. J DENT RES, 79(5), 1206-1206.
  • Settimi R & Blackwell PG (1998) Conditional simulation for moving average processes, with discrete or continuous values. STAT COMPUT, 8(2), 135-144.
  • KOZERSKI L, KRAJEWSKI P, PUPEK K, BLACKWELL PG & WILLIAMSON MP (1997) . ChemInform, 28(51).
  • Blackwell PG (1997) Random diffusion models for animal movement. ECOL MODEL, 100(1-3), 87-102.
  • Blackwell PG (1997) . J Theor Biol, 189(2), 175-181.
  • Kozerski L, Krajewski P, Pupek K, Blackwell PG & Williamson MP (1997) Towards stereochemical and conformational assignment in flexible molecules using NOEs and molecular modelling. J CHEM SOC PERK T 2(9), 1811-1818.
  • MANDER AP, BLACKWELL PG & CANNINGS C (1995) A RESOURCE-DRIVEN STRATEGY CONFLICT IN 2 DIMENSIONS. J THEOR BIOL, 177(1), 17-28.
  • Blackwell P (1994) . Statistics and Computing, 4(3), 213-218.
  • Blackwell P & Bacon PJ (1993) . Animal Behaviour, 46(4), 821-823.
  • Blackwell P (1992) . Journal of Applied Probability, 29(4), 814-824.
  • Blackwell P (1992) . Journal of Applied Probability, 29(04), 814-824.
  • Ball F & Blackwell P (1992) . Advances in Applied Probability, 24(1), 221-222.
  • Ball F & Blackwell P (1992) . Advances in Applied Probability, 24(01), 221-222.
  • Bacon PJ, Ball F & Blackwell P (1991) . Journal of Theoretical Biology, 148(4), 433-444.
  • Bacon PJ, Ball F & Blackwell P (1991) . Journal of Theoretical Biology, 148(4), 445-468.
  • BLACKWELL P (1990) . Mathematical Medicine and Biology, 7(4), 261-279.
  • BLACKWELL PG, RENNOLLS K & COUTTS MP (1990) . Forestry, 63(1), 73-91.
  • Rennolls K & Blackwell P (1988) . Forest Ecology and Management, 25(1), 31-58.
  • Rennolls K & Blackwell P (1986) An integrated forest process model: its calibration and its predictive performance.. Research Development Paper Uk Forestry Commission, 148, 2.50.
  • Blackwell P & Wigley B () Getting to the Point: Defining, Reconstructing and Investigating Shape through a Procrustean Protocol. Journal of Computer Applications in Archaeology.
  • Blackwell P & Grainger D () FInCH: Fast Statistical Inference For Continuous-Time Animal Movement. Methods in Ecology and Evolution.

Book chapters

  • Spence M & Blackwell P (2014) , Springer Proceedings in Mathematics & Statistics (pp. 35-39). Springer International Publishing
  • Wheatley JJ, Blackwell PG, Abram NJ & Wolff EW (2014) , Springer Proceedings in Mathematics & Statistics (pp. 121-125). Springer International Publishing
  • Blackwell PG (2005) Wiley
  • Blackwell PG () Wiley

Conference proceedings

  • Spence M & Blackwell P (2014) . Springer Proceedings in Mathematics and Statistics, Vol. 63 (pp 35-39)
  • Campbell GS, Blackwell PG & Woodward FI (1998) Modelling the role played by aided migration in the dispersal of alien plant species. KEY CONCEPTS IN LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY (pp 320-320)
  • Anderson C, Blackwell PG & Cannings C (1997) Stochastic simulation of ants that forage by expectation. FOURTH EUROPEAN CONFERENCE ON ARTIFICIAL LIFE (pp 531-538)
  • Fletcher RP, Cannings C & Blackwell PG (1995) Modelling foraging behaviour of ant colonies.. ADVANCES IN ARTIFICIAL LIFE, Vol. 929 (pp 772-783)
  • Parton A, Blackwell PG & Skarin A () . Bayesian Statistics in Action (pp 223-230). Florence, Italy, 19 June 2016 - 19 June 2016.

Preprints

  • Winder LA, Parsons P, Horsburgh G, Maher K, Hipperson H, Wierzbicki C, Jeffries AR, Brown MR, Fairbrother-Browne A, Denise H , Khalifa MS et al (2022) , Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory.
  • Spence MA, Thorpe RB, Blackwell PG, Scott F, Southwell R & Blanchard JL (2020) , arXiv.
  • Michelot T, Blackwell PG, Chamaillé-Jammes S & Matthiopoulos J (2018) , arXiv.
  • Michelot T & Blackwell PG (2018) , arXiv.
  • Pope CA, Gosling JP, Barber S, Johnson J, Yamaguchi T, Feingold G & Blackwell P (2018) , arXiv.
  • Spence MA, Blanchard JL, Rossberg AG, Heath MR, Heymans JJ, Mackinson S, Serpetti N, Speirs D, Thorpe RB & Blackwell PG (2017) , arXiv.
  • Michelot T, Blackwell PG & Matthiopoulos J (2017) , arXiv.
  • Parton A & Blackwell PG (2017) , arXiv.
  • Parton A, Blackwell PG & Skarin A (2016) , arXiv.
  • Patterson TA, Parton A, Langrock R, Blackwell PG, Thomas L & King R (2016) , arXiv.
  • Langrock R, Hopcraft JGC, Blackwell PG, Goodall V, King R, Niu M, Patterson TA, Pedersen MW, Skarin A & Schick RS (2013) , arXiv.
Research group

Mathematical and Statistical Modelling

Grants

Past grants, as Principal Investigator

 
Daphne Jackson FellowshipDJ
Statistical Support for BAS Palaeoclimate StudiesBAS
Ice Core Annual Layer CountingBAS

Past grants, as Coinvestigator

 
NERC
NERC
EPSRC
The future of the past: A robust framework for the upgrade and development of the international radiocarbon calibration/comparison curves (IntCal)NERC
NERC
NERC
NERC
NERC
NERC
Teaching activities
MAS115Mathematical Investigation Skills

Links